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Geological and Mining Engineering

Geological and Mining Engineering (GME), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. GME is devoted to publish geological and mining engineering related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on geological and mining engineering throughout the world. GME welcomes all original

ISSN: 3029-1887(P)

3029-2034(O)

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Food Safety and Quality

Food Safety and Quality (FSQ), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. FSQ is devoted to publish food safety and quality related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on food safety and quality throughout the world. FSQ welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.

ISSN: 3029-2115(P)

3029-2123(O)

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Hydraulic Engineering and Power Research

Hydraulic Engineering and Power Research (HEPR), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. HEPR is devoted to publish hydraulic engineering and power related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on hydraulic engineering and power throughout the world. HEPR welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.Â

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Â Â Â Â ISSN: 3029-2158(P)

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3029-2166(O)

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Medical and Health Research

Medical and Health Research (MHR), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. MHR is devoted to publish medicine related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on medicine throughout the world. MHR welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.Â

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Â Â Â Â ISSN: 3029-2190(P)

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3029-2204(O)

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Practical Medical Research

Practical Medical Research (PMR), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. PMR is devoted to publish medicine related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on medicine throughout the world. PMR welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.Â

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Â Â Â Â ISSN: 3029-2085(P)

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3029-2093(O)

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Forum on Research and Innovation Management

Forum on Research and Innovation Management (FRIM), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. FRIM is devoted to publish research and innovation management related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on research and innovation management throughout the world. FRIM welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.Â

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Â Â Â Â ISSN: 3029-1933(P)

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3029-1984(O)

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Construction Safety Technology and Management

Construction Safety Technology and Management (CSTM), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. CSTM is devoted to publish construction safety technology and management related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on construction safety technology and management throughout the world. CSTM welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.Â

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Â Â Â Â Â ISSN: 3029-2069(P)

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3029-2077(O)

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Industrial Technology Research

Industrial Technology Research (ITR), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. ITR is devoted to publish industrial technology related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on industrial technology throughout the world. ITR welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.

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Â Â Â Â ISSN: 3029-1895(P)

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3029-2026(O)

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Environmental Protection and Health

Environmental Protection and Health (EPH), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. EPH is devoted to publish environmental protection and health related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on environmental protection and health throughout the world. EPH welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.Â

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Â Â Â Â ISSN: 3029-1909(P)

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3029-2018(O)

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Artificial Intelligence Technology Research

Artificial Intelligence Technology Research (AITR), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. AITR is devoted to publish artificial intelligence technology related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on artificial intelligence technology throughout the world. AITR welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.Â

Â Â Â Â ISSN: 3029-1968(O)

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3029-195X(P)
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Curriculum Learning and Exploration

Curriculum Learning and Exploration (CLE), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. CLE is devoted to publish curriculum related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on curriculum throughout the world. CLE welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.Â

Â Â Â Â ISSN: 3029-1976(O)

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3029-1941(P)
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Evaluation of Educational Research

Evaluation of Educational Research (EER), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. EER is devoted to publish education related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on education throughout the world. EER welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.

Â Â Â Â ISSN: 3029-1992(O)

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3029-1925(P)
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World Education Forum

World Education Forum (WEF), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. WEF is devoted to publish education related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on education throughout the world. WEF welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.

Â Â Â Â ISSN: 3029-214X(O)

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3029-2131(P)

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New Explorations in Education and Teaching

New Explorations in Education and Teaching (NEET), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. NEET is devoted to publish education related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on education throughout the world. NEET welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.Â

Â Â Â Â ISSN: 3029-200X(O)

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3029-1917(P)

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Modern Economic Management Forum

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Modern Economic Management Forum (MEMF), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. MEMF is devoted to publish modern economic management related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on economic management throughout the world. MEMF welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.Â

Â Â Â Â ISSN: 3029-2182(O)

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3029-2174(P)

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Research and Commentary on Humanities and Arts

Research and Commentary on Humanities and ArtsÂ (RCHA), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. RCHA is devoted to publish humanities and arts related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on humanities and arts throughout the world. RCHA welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.Â

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Â Â Â Â Â Â ISSN: 3029-2050(O)

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3029-2042(P)

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Scineer Publishing is a publisher of open access journals. Covering various disciplines and promoting interdisciplinary development, Scineer Publishing adheres to a principle of respecting academics, and publishes insightful and rigorous academic research contents.

12 Eu Tong Sen Street, #07-168, Singapore 059819

E-mail: scineerpub@126.com

Copyright © 2023 Scineer Publishing Pte. Ltd.

An Ensemble Learning Approach with Explainability for Early Prediction of Student Academic Performance

Lin Chai

Abstract

This paper proposes an interpretable ensemble learning framework that integrates multi-source student features including demographic attributes, family background, behavioral indicators, and prior academic records to predict final academic performance using the
widely adopted UCI Student Performance dataset. Five machine learning classifiers are systematically compared: Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM. To address class imbalance, the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE)
is applied during preprocessing. Experimental results demonstrate that XGBoost achieves the best overall performance, with an accuracy of
87.3%, F1-score of 0.851, and AUC-ROC of 0.923. Furthermore, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) are employed to provide featurelevel interpretability, revealing that prior grades, study time, and number of past course failures are the most influential predictors. The proposed framework not only advances predictive accuracy but also offers actionable insights for educators and policymakers seeking to implement data-driven early warning systems.

Keywords

Student Performance Prediction; Ensemble Learning; Xgboost; Shap; Educational Data Mining

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References

[1] C. Romero and S. Ventura, "Educational data mining: A review of the state of the art, " IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part C, vol. 40, no. 6, pp. 601–618, 2010.

[2] M. Hussain, W. Zhu, W. Zhang, and S. M. R. Abidi, "Student engagement predictions in an e-learning system and their impact on student course assessment scores, " Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience, vol. 2018, 2018.

[3] J. Xu, K. H. Moon, and M. Van Der Schaar, "A machine learning approach for tracking and predicting student performance in degree

programs, " IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Signal Processing, vol. 11, no. 5, pp. 742–753, 2017.

[4] C. Romero and S. Ventura, "Data mining in education, " WIREs Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 12–23, 2013.

[5] N. T. Nghe, P. Janecek, and P. Haddawy, "A comparative analysis of techniques for predicting academic performance, " in Proc. 37th

ASEE/IEEE Frontiers in Education Conference, 2007.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.70711/aitr.v3i12.9464

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Scineer Publishing is a publisher of open access journals. Covering various disciplines and promoting interdisciplinary development, Scineer Publishing adheres to a principle of respecting academics, and publishes insightful and rigorous academic research contents.

12 Eu Tong Sen Street, #07-168, Singapore 059819

E-mail: scineerpub@126.com

Copyright © 2023 Scineer Publishing Pte. Ltd.