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An Improved BP Neural Network Credit Default Prediction Model Based on SMOTE and Random Forests

Yongxi Zhou

Abstract


In response to the urgent need for financial institutions to accurately predict credit defaults and enhance risk management capabilities, this study proposes an improved backpropagation (BP) neural network model for credit default prediction, integrating the SMOTE technique for data balancing and utilizing Random Forest for feature selection. Based on credit data analysis, the proposed model is benchmarked
against several baseline classifiers, including logistic regression, XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost, and a stacking ensemble method. The
outcomes of the final test data indicate that the proposed method surpasses the alternatives regarding AUC, KS, and accuracy, with an AUC of
0.714, a KS value of 0.821, and an accuracy of 80.3%. The results demonstrate that the model markedly improves the capacity to distinguish
between default and non-default instances, while preserving elevated overall predictive accuracy.

Keywords


SMOTE; Random Forest; BP neural network; Credit default forecasts

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References


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.70711/frim.v3i7.6820

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