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Geological and Mining Engineering

Geological and Mining Engineering (GME), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. GME is devoted to publish geological and mining engineering related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on geological and mining engineering throughout the world. GME welcomes all original

ISSN: 3029-1887(P)

3029-2034(O)

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Food Safety and Quality

Food Safety and Quality (FSQ), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. FSQ is devoted to publish food safety and quality related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on food safety and quality throughout the world. FSQ welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.

ISSN: 3029-2115(P)

3029-2123(O)

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Hydraulic Engineering and Power Research

Hydraulic Engineering and Power Research (HEPR), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. HEPR is devoted to publish hydraulic engineering and power related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on hydraulic engineering and power throughout the world. HEPR welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.Â

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Â Â Â Â ISSN: 3029-2158(P)

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3029-2166(O)

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Medical and Health Research

Medical and Health Research (MHR), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. MHR is devoted to publish medicine related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on medicine throughout the world. MHR welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.Â

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Â Â Â Â ISSN: 3029-2190(P)

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3029-2204(O)

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Practical Medical Research

Practical Medical Research (PMR), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. PMR is devoted to publish medicine related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on medicine throughout the world. PMR welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.Â

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Â Â Â Â ISSN: 3029-2085(P)

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3029-2093(O)

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Forum on Research and Innovation Management

Forum on Research and Innovation Management (FRIM), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. FRIM is devoted to publish research and innovation management related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on research and innovation management throughout the world. FRIM welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.Â

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Â Â Â Â ISSN: 3029-1933(P)

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3029-1984(O)

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Construction Safety Technology and Management

Construction Safety Technology and Management (CSTM), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. CSTM is devoted to publish construction safety technology and management related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on construction safety technology and management throughout the world. CSTM welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.Â

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Â Â Â Â Â ISSN: 3029-2069(P)

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3029-2077(O)

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Industrial Technology Research

Industrial Technology Research (ITR), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. ITR is devoted to publish industrial technology related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on industrial technology throughout the world. ITR welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.

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Â Â Â Â ISSN: 3029-1895(P)

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3029-2026(O)

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Environmental Protection and Health

Environmental Protection and Health (EPH), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. EPH is devoted to publish environmental protection and health related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on environmental protection and health throughout the world. EPH welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.Â

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Â Â Â Â ISSN: 3029-1909(P)

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3029-2018(O)

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Artificial Intelligence Technology Research

Artificial Intelligence Technology Research (AITR), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. AITR is devoted to publish artificial intelligence technology related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on artificial intelligence technology throughout the world. AITR welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.Â

Â Â Â Â ISSN: 3029-1968(O)

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3029-195X(P)
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Curriculum Learning and Exploration

Curriculum Learning and Exploration (CLE), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. CLE is devoted to publish curriculum related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on curriculum throughout the world. CLE welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.Â

Â Â Â Â ISSN: 3029-1976(O)

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3029-1941(P)
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Evaluation of Educational Research

Evaluation of Educational Research (EER), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. EER is devoted to publish education related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on education throughout the world. EER welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.

Â Â Â Â ISSN: 3029-1992(O)

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3029-1925(P)
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World Education Forum

World Education Forum (WEF), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. WEF is devoted to publish education related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on education throughout the world. WEF welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.

Â Â Â Â ISSN: 3029-214X(O)

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3029-2131(P)

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New Explorations in Education and Teaching

New Explorations in Education and Teaching (NEET), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. NEET is devoted to publish education related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on education throughout the world. NEET welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.Â

Â Â Â Â ISSN: 3029-200X(O)

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3029-1917(P)

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Modern Economic Management Forum

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Modern Economic Management Forum (MEMF), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. MEMF is devoted to publish modern economic management related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on economic management throughout the world. MEMF welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.Â

Â Â Â Â ISSN: 3029-2182(O)

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3029-2174(P)

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Research and Commentary on Humanities and Arts

Research and Commentary on Humanities and ArtsÂ (RCHA), published by Scineer Publishing PTE. LTD, is an open-access journal. RCHA is devoted to publish humanities and arts related articles in the form of original papers, review papers and case studies. It also provides a platform for scholars to exchange the latest information in the related fields and aim to promote the research on humanities and arts throughout the world. RCHA welcomes all original manuscripts that do not be published in any other journals.Â

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Â Â Â Â Â Â ISSN: 3029-2050(O)

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3029-2042(P)

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Scineer Publishing is a publisher of open access journals. Covering various disciplines and promoting interdisciplinary development, Scineer Publishing adheres to a principle of respecting academics, and publishes insightful and rigorous academic research contents.

12 Eu Tong Sen Street, #07-168, Singapore 059819

E-mail: scineerpub@126.com

Copyright © 2023 Scineer Publishing Pte. Ltd.

Research on a Lightweight Supply Chain Demand Forecasting Model Based on STL Decomposition and Dynamic Feature Selection

Yu Ji, Kaikai Su*, Lei Chen

Abstract

The accuracy of supply chain demand forecasting directly impacts inventory cost control and operational efficiency optimization.
Traditional time series models struggle to handle the coupled effects of complex seasonal fluctuations and unexpected events, while existing
machine learning methods often suffer from overfitting due to noise introduced by redundant features. To address this challenge, this study
proposes a lightweight ensemble forecasting framework integrating STL time series decomposition with SHAP-based dynamic feature selec
tion. The method first employs STL decomposition to uncouple sales data into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Subsequently, it dy
namically selects high-contribution features through a rolling-window feature evaluation mechanism based on SHAP values, effectively miti
gating noise impacts. Experiments validated using the Rossmann pharmaceutical sales dataset demonstrate that the proposed method achieves
a WMAPE of 6.2%, representing a 3.1% reduction compared to a standalone XGBoost model, while improving the R² metric to 0.956. Ad
ditionally, the framework exhibits 12.6 times higher training efficiency than LSTM models, showcasing superior computational performance.
Ablation studies further confirmed that the trend slope feature exhibits the highest predictive contribution, with an average SHAP value of 0.42.
The proposed framework combines high computational efficiency with strong interpretability, making it particularly suitable for resource
constrained applications in small and medium-sized enterprises. This method not only effectively improves supply chain demand forecasting
accuracy but also extends its methodology to sectors with similar demand characteristics, such as retail and fast-moving consumer goods.

Keywords

STL decomposition; XGBoost; SHAP value analysis; Dynamic feature selection; Lightweight model

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References

[1] Cai Tiantian. Research on Supply Chain Forecasting Method Based on ARIMA (1, 1, 1) Model [D]. Henan: Henan University of Sci

ence and Technology, 2022

[2] Tang Jingyun. Research and Application of Demand Forecasting for E-commerce Supply Chain Based on Blockchain [D]. Taiyuan Nor

mal University, 2024

[3] Li Guanghao, Huang Kuihua, Yang Yaodong, etc A supply chain demand forecasting method based on federated learning [J]. Frontiers

of Science and Technology of Engineering Management, 2024, 43 (5): 49-58

[4] Wei Hengyu, Li Qingkui. Predictive Control of Data Driven Product Supply Chain System Based on Change Design [J]. Science Tech

nology and Engineering, 2024, 24 (9): 3710-3718

[5] Liu Jixiong, Zou Rui, Xu Siwei. Wind power generation prediction based on ARIMA [J]. Modern Information Technology, 2025, 9 (4):

157-161166

[6] Chen Guangyin, Yu Wei, Jiang Xin, etc Application of STL Attention LSTM Model with Time Series Decomposition Fusion in PM2.5

Prediction in Kunshan City [J]. Bulletin of Science and Technology, 2025, 41 (2): 78-84, 90

[7] Ding Meirong, Zhang Yingchun. Fusion of Sequence Decomposition and Prophet Model for Time Series Prediction [C]//Proceedings of

the 3rd RISC-V Technology and Ecology Symposium 2023:294-301 .

[8] Cong Guoqing. Design and Implementation of Elastic Big Data Service System Based on Time Series Load Prediction [D]. Shandong:

Shandong University, 2024

[9] Chen Yong, Liu Yifeng, Wang Yin, etc Research on the Application of Prophet Model in Intelligent Prediction of Order Quantity [J].

Telecommunications Science, 2024, 40 (11): 160-169

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.70711/frim.v4i4.9033

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Scineer Publishing is a publisher of open access journals. Covering various disciplines and promoting interdisciplinary development, Scineer Publishing adheres to a principle of respecting academics, and publishes insightful and rigorous academic research contents.

12 Eu Tong Sen Street, #07-168, Singapore 059819

E-mail: scineerpub@126.com

Copyright © 2023 Scineer Publishing Pte. Ltd.