Differential Degradation of Permafrost Induced by Airport Runways under Climate Warming
Abstract
thermal disturbance. Runway construction alters surfacesubsurface energy exchange, thereby enhancing the sensitivity of underlying perma
frost to future climate forcing. In this study, CMIP6 climate projections under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios were applied in a one-di
mensional unsteady heat-conduction model to simulate the evolution of ground temperature profiles beneath the runway centerline, shoulder,
and adjacent natural ground from 2020 to 2100. The analysis examines changes in active-layer thickness, the depth of the 0C isotherm, maxi
mum freezing depth, and multi-year mean ground temperature. The results show that: (1)under both scenarios, runway structures substantially
modify the surface energy balance, producing significantly higher ground temperatures beneath the centerline than beneath natural ground;
(2) under SSP3-7.0, the 0 C isotherm rises by 2.8-4.1 m beneath the centerline and 1.9-3.0 m beneath natural ground by 2100, indicating sus
tained permafrost degradation; (3) under SSP1-2.6, permafrost warming beneath the shoulder and natural ground is notably reduced, weaken
ing the degradation trend; and (4) runway-induced thermal disturbances exhibit a clear gradient, strongest beneath the centerline, followed by
the shoulder, and weakest on natural ground. These findings elucidate the differentiated permafrost degradation driven by climate forcing and
engineering disturbance,providing scientific support for the design and maintenance of airport infrastructure in permafrost regions.
Keywords
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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.70711/frim.v4i4.9064
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