How Climate Factors Affect Rodent Hosts in Yunnan and Explores Strategies to Prevent Plague under Future Climate Change
Abstract
This study investigates how climatic factors affect rodent host populations in Yunnan, China, and through what mechanisms
these trends enhance the risk of plague transmission. With 20 years of surveillance data (20002019) on rodent density, temperature, rainfall, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), plague positivity rate, and flea index, a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was used to analyze
nonlinear associations. Results show that moderate temperatures and rainfall significantly enhance flea and rodent reproduction, hence
increasing the chances of plague transmission. Conversely, severe climate conditions such as very hot weather or heavy rain impede host
survival and reduce transmission potential. The studies show that climate change in the future can alter plague outbreak timing and severity. Strengthening climate monitoring and early warning mechanisms is therefore essential to enhancing plague prevention as well as public health readiness in high-risk locations.
these trends enhance the risk of plague transmission. With 20 years of surveillance data (20002019) on rodent density, temperature, rainfall, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), plague positivity rate, and flea index, a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was used to analyze
nonlinear associations. Results show that moderate temperatures and rainfall significantly enhance flea and rodent reproduction, hence
increasing the chances of plague transmission. Conversely, severe climate conditions such as very hot weather or heavy rain impede host
survival and reduce transmission potential. The studies show that climate change in the future can alter plague outbreak timing and severity. Strengthening climate monitoring and early warning mechanisms is therefore essential to enhancing plague prevention as well as public health readiness in high-risk locations.
Keywords
Climate change; Plague transmission; Yunnan; Rodent host; Flea index
Full Text:
PDFReferences
[1] Parmenter, R. R., Yadav, E. P., Parmenter, C. A., Ettestad, P., & Gage, K. L. (1999). Incidence of plague associated with increased winterspring precipitation in New Mexico. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 61(5), 814821.
[2] Enscore, R. E., Biggerstaff, B. J., Brown, T. L., Fulgham, R. F., Reynolds, P. J., Engelthaler, D. M., ... & Gage, K. L. (2002). Modeling
relationships between climate and the frequency of human plague cases in the southwestern United States, 19601997. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 66(2), 186196.
[3] Zhang, W., Wang, L., Wang, Y., & Wang, Z. (2011). The impact of climate change on plague epidemics in Yunnan Province, China.
Journal of Environmental Health, 28(4), 345350.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.70711/mhr.v2i7.7440
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
