Reliability Analysis of Slopes Based on Monte Carlo Simulation
Abstract
technical parameters. This study proposes a probabilistic framework to quantify the effect of parameter uncertainty on slope reliability. A
deterministic model was first developed using the simplified Bishop method for vertical slopes. Cohesion and internal friction angle were then
treated as log-normally distributed random variables, and Monte Carlo simulation with 10, 000 samples was employed to compute the failure
probability.A sensitivity analysis highlighted how the coefficient of variation of each parameter influences slope reliability. The study under
scores the importance of probabilistic reliability analysis and identifying key sensitive parameters in slope design and risk assessment, in addi
tion to conventional safety factors.
Keywords
Full Text:
PDFReferences
[1] Xi Fusun.Application of Optimization Algorithms in the Reliability Analysis of Slope Stability [J]. Heilongjiang Transportation Science
and Technology, 2025, 48(07): 28-32. DOI: 10.16402/j.cnki.issn1008-3383.2025.07.027 .
[2] Cai Fengzhen. Reliability Analysis and Optimal Design of Slope Reinforcement Using Anti-Slide Piles Based on Improved Reliability
Indices and Particle Swarm Algorithm [D]. Qingdao University of Technology, 2025. DOI: 10.27263/d.cnki.gqudc.2025.000484 .
[3] Yang Rong. Three-Dimensional Slope Reliability Analysis Based on the Random Limit Equilibrium Method [D]. Ningxia University,
2024. DOI: 10.27257/d.cnki.gnxhc.2024.001244 .
[4] Gu Xin, Zheng Wengang, Ou Qiang, et al. Reliability Analysis of Soil Slope Stability Based on Chebyshev-Galerkin-KL Expansion [J].
Journal of Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2023, 45(12): 2472-2480.
[5] Yang Chuan. Analysis of slope stability under rainfall and reservoir water level changes using GeoStudio [D]. Shenyang Jianzhu Uni
versity, 2023. DOI: 10.27809/d.cnki.gsjgc.2023.000252 .
[6] Wang Yinghong. Time-varying reliability analysis of slopes considering rainfall processes [D]. Nanchang University, 2023. DOI:
10.27232/d.cnki.gnchu.2023.003228 .
[7] Li Weiyue.Ultra-high-dimensional reliability analysis method for slope stability and its application in high rock-fill dam engineering [D].
Sichuan University, 2023. DOI: 10.27342/d.cnki.gscdu.2023.005501 .
[8] Chu Xuesong. System reliability analysis and risk evaluation methods for soil slope stability and their engineering applications [D].
Qingdao University of Technology, 2022. DOI: 10.27263/d.cnki.gqudc. 2022.000003.
[9] Gao, L. X. Research on slope stability reliability analysis methods based on probabilistic and non-probabilistic reliability [D]. Hunan
University of Science and Technology, 2022. DOI: 10.27730/d.cnki.ghngy.2022.000519 .
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.70711/frim.v4i4.9056
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
