A Century of Evolution in Research on the Risks of Intelligent Technologies: From Literary Imagination to Academic Institutions
Abstract
Discussions on the risks of intelligent technologies can be traced back to the mid-19th century, undergoing a long evolution from
science fiction metaphors to scientific predictions, and from philosophical speculation to engineering ethics. This article traces its historical
process into four stages: Emerging in science fiction prophecies and literary creations, with Butler, ?apek, Asimov, and others pioneering
core themes such as "creations turning against their creators" through literary imagination; scientificating in the mid-20th century, with scholars like Wiener, Turing, and Goode offering serious predictions using concepts such as cybernetics and the "intelligence explosion"; ethical
agenda-setting from the 1970s to the 1990s, with the "Stanley House Criterion" initiating an interdisciplinary ethical framework, and Minsky
and Vinge deepening discussions on value alignment and the technological singularity; institutionalizing in the 21st century, marked by the
establishment of specialized institutions such as the Machine Intelligence Institute and the MIT AI Risk Repository, risk research has moved
from fragmented thinking to systematic academic exploration. This century-long evolution profoundly reflects the historical urgency of paying
attention to and preventing the risks of artificial intelligence.
science fiction metaphors to scientific predictions, and from philosophical speculation to engineering ethics. This article traces its historical
process into four stages: Emerging in science fiction prophecies and literary creations, with Butler, ?apek, Asimov, and others pioneering
core themes such as "creations turning against their creators" through literary imagination; scientificating in the mid-20th century, with scholars like Wiener, Turing, and Goode offering serious predictions using concepts such as cybernetics and the "intelligence explosion"; ethical
agenda-setting from the 1970s to the 1990s, with the "Stanley House Criterion" initiating an interdisciplinary ethical framework, and Minsky
and Vinge deepening discussions on value alignment and the technological singularity; institutionalizing in the 21st century, marked by the
establishment of specialized institutions such as the Machine Intelligence Institute and the MIT AI Risk Repository, risk research has moved
from fragmented thinking to systematic academic exploration. This century-long evolution profoundly reflects the historical urgency of paying
attention to and preventing the risks of artificial intelligence.
Keywords
Risks of intelligent technology; Historical evolution; Science fiction warning; Technology ethics; Academic institutions
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PDFReferences
[1] Butler, S. (1863, June). Darwin among the machines. The Press, 13, 205.
[2] Wiener, N. (1978). The human use of human beings: Cybernetics and society (B. Chen, Trans.). Beijing: Commercial Press, pp. 163-
165.
[3] Good, I. J. (1965). Speculations concerning the first ultraintelligent machine. In F. L. Alt & M. Rubinoff (Eds.), Advances in computers
(Vol. 6, pp. 31-88). New York: Academic Press.
[4] Slattery, P., Saeri, A. K., Grundy, E. A. C., et al. (2024). The AI risk repository: A comprehensive meta-review, database, and taxonomy
of risks from artificial intelligence. arXiv preprint arXiv:2408.12622.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.70711/frim.v4i6.9704
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