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Constructing a Carbon Pricing Model for the Iron and Steel Industry in the Context of China's National Carbon Market Expansion

Gaiyan Wei, Cuimin Zhen

Abstract


China's 2025 carbon market expansion to steel risks distorted price signals due to uniform pricing. Using a dynamic spatial shadow
price model with intertemporal and spatial effects, we find Tangshan's carbon shadow price at RMB 1, 020.7/t–15.1% above conventional estimates. Positive spatial spillovers (indirect effect 23.6%) are significant. Ignoring spatiotemporal effects underestimates carbon costs. Results
support differentiated pricing, regional coordination, and quota optimization.

Keywords


Iron and steel industry; Carbon pricing; Dynamic spatial shadow price model; Spatial spillover

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References


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.70711/frim.v4i7.9870

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