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Disentangling the Triple Divide: A Heterogeneous Analysis of Hainan's FPT Policies on Tourist Expenditure, SME Profitability, and Household Income

Lu Liu

Abstract


The Hainan Free Trade Port (HFTP) launched island-wide customs closure in December 2025. This study examines heterogeneous
policy effects on tourists, SMEs, and households, identifying a "triple divide": consumption substitution, cost arbitrage, and dual-channel income effects. Zero-tariff benefits are unevenly distributed across industries and locations.

Keywords


Hainan Free Trade Port; Heterogeneous policy effects; Tourist expenditure; SME profitability; Household income

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References


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.70711/memf.v3i10.10036

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