From "Pull"to "Feedback":Re - examine Jiangsu's Agricultural Modernization - Economic Growth Relationship
Abstract
mechanization power, value-added of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and regional GDP. By constructing a VAR model
and applying unit root tests, Granger causality tests, impulse response functions and variance decomposition[1], we empirically explore the dy
namic interaction between agricultural modernization and economic growth in Jiangsu.
The results show that economic growth is a Granger cause of agricultural modernization[2], while the reverse lacks statistical significance.
Impulse response analysis reveals that economic growth has an "Inverted U-shaped"response to agricultural modernization, starting positive, then
negative, and finally stabilizing. In contrast, agricultural modernization has a sustained and significantly positive response to economic growth.
Variance decomposition indicates that economic growth contributes more to agricultural modernization. The study identifies four key
issues in their relationship: technical constraints, contribution disparities, interaction modes, and structural imbalances. Policy suggestions in
clude optimizing model techniques, deepening agricultural supply-side structural reforms, enhancing economic feedback mechanisms, adopt
ing comprehensive analytical viewpoints, and strengthening policy coordination to promote coordinated high-quality development of agricul
tural modernization and the regional economy in Jiangsu.
Keywords
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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.70711/memf.v3i5.9080
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